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1、INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUSCopyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCHAPTER 19Financial Statement Analysis財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS19-2 Financial statement analysis can be used to discover mispriced securities. 可以被用于發(fā)現(xiàn)被錯(cuò)誤定價(jià)的證券 Financi
2、al accounting data are widely available, but Accounting earnings and economic earnings are not always the same thing! 重要：會(huì)計(jì)盈利和經(jīng)濟(jì)盈利不總是一樣的Financial Statement Analysis財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析2INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS19-3 Income Statement: 損益表Profitability over time Balance Sheet: 平衡表Financial condition at a poi
3、nt in time Statement of Cash Flows: 現(xiàn)金流量表Tracks the cash implications of transactions.Financial Statements財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表3INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS19-4Table 19.1 Consolidated Statement of Income for Hewlett-Packard, 2009惠普公司的合并損益表4INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS19-5Table 19.2 Consolidated Balance She
4、et for Hewlett-Packard, 2009惠普公司的合并資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表5INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS19-6Table 19.3 Statement of Cash Flows for Hewlett-Packard, 2009惠普公司的合并現(xiàn)金流量表6INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS19-7Accounting Versus Economic Earnings會(huì)計(jì)利潤和經(jīng)濟(jì)利潤 Economic earnings經(jīng)濟(jì)利潤 Sustainable cash flow that can be paid to sto
5、ckholders without impairing productive capacity of the firm 投資者得到的現(xiàn)金流，不傷害公司的持續(xù)發(fā)展，或者是真實(shí)利潤 Accounting earnings會(huì)計(jì)利潤 Affected by conventions regarding the valuation of assets，會(huì)計(jì)報(bào)表反映出來的經(jīng)濟(jì)利潤，受到各類計(jì)價(jià)方式和其他因素的影響7INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS19-8Profitability Measures盈利能力度量 ROE measures profitability for c
6、ontributors of equity capital.After-tax profit/book value of equity ROA measures profitability for all contributors of capital.EBIT/total assets 凈資產(chǎn)收益率ROE，資本收益率ROA 息稅前利潤EBIT（Interest rate, Tax)8INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS19-9Past vs. Future ROE歷史與未來 ROE is a key determinant of earnings growth.
7、凈資產(chǎn)收益是收益增長的重要指標(biāo) Past profitability does not guarantee future profitability.過去不等于未來 Security values are based on future profits. Expectations of future dividends determine todays stock value. 證券價(jià)值由未來盈利決定9INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS19-10Financial Leverage and ROE財(cái)務(wù)杠桿與ROE ROE can differ from ROA
8、because of leverage.財(cái)務(wù)杠桿導(dǎo)致兩者不同 Leverage makes ROE more volatile.財(cái)務(wù)杠桿可以使得ROE不穩(wěn)定 Let t=tax rate and r=interest rate, then:10EquityDebtROAROA1ROErtINVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS19-11Financial Leverage and ROE財(cái)務(wù)杠桿與ROE If there is no debt or ROA = r, ROE will simply equal ROA(1 - t). If ROA r, the fir
9、m earns more than it pays out to creditors and ROE increases. If ROA k, value is added to the firm. （資產(chǎn)收益率-資本機(jī)會(huì)成本）*資本投資，也稱為剩余收入25INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS19-26Example 19.4 Wal-Mart沃爾瑪案例 In 2009, Wal-Marts cost of capital was 5.9%. Its ROA was 9.6% and its capital base was $115 billion. Wal-M
10、arts EVA = (0.096-0.059) x $115 billion = $4.25 billion26INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS19-27 Accounting Differences會(huì)計(jì)差異Inventory Valuation存貨估值Depreciation貶值 Inflation and Interest Expense通貨膨脹 Fair Value Accounting公允價(jià)值會(huì)計(jì) Quality of Earnings盈余質(zhì)量 International Accounting Conventions國際會(huì)計(jì)慣例Comparabili
11、ty Problems可比性問題27INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS19-28International Accounting Differences Reserves many other countries allow more flexibility in use of reserves 預(yù)留準(zhǔn)備金 Depreciation US allows separate tax and reporting presentations 折舊 Intangibles treatment varies widely 無形資產(chǎn)28INVESTMENTS | BODIE,
12、 KANE, MARCUS19-29Figure 19.2 Adjusted Versus Reported Price-Earnings Ratios調(diào)整市盈率/報(bào)告市盈率29INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS19-30The Graham Technique格雷厄姆技術(shù) Rules for stock selection: Purchase common stocks at less than their working-capital value.購買低于營運(yùn)資本的普通股 Give no weight to plant or other fixed assets.不考慮固定資產(chǎn)價(jià)值，從流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)凈值出發(fā)思考問題 Deduct all liabilities in full from assets.從資產(chǎn)中扣減所有負(fù)債30
Chap019財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析課件
